Analyzing the evidence that helps businesses win “product not received” disputes (opens in new tab)
“Product not received” disputes are Stripe’s most common nonfraud dispute category, and strong, specific fulfillment evidence is closely associated with higher win rates. Analysis of one million disputes found that physical-goods businesses benefited most from confirmed delivery data, while digital businesses benefited from usage records and processor-verified refunds. The findings suggest businesses should connect fulfillment systems to dispute workflows and submit evidence strategically. ## Delivery Evidence for Physical Goods - Delivery confirmation correlated with a **27 percentage point** higher win rate than disputes without it. - Adding a GPS delivery map increased the lift by another **15 percentage points**. - A recipient signature added a further **2 percentage points**. - Disputes containing all three forms of evidence had a **44 percentage point** higher win rate. - Many businesses fail to provide this evidence because shipping and dispute systems are disconnected, making order matching a manual, difficult-to-scale process. ## Timing of Tracking Evidence - A tracking number is much more persuasive once it shows confirmed delivery. - Evidence submitted after delivery was confirmed correlated with a **27 percentage point** higher win rate. - Evidence submitted while a package was still in transit produced only a **2 percentage point** lift. - If the response window allows, businesses should wait for delivery confirmation. - If early submission is necessary, they should document that the shipment remains within the delivery timeframe agreed to at checkout. ## Evidence for Digital Goods - Digital activity and usage logs—such as records showing that a customer streamed, downloaded, or accessed the purchased product—correlated with a **10 percentage point** higher win rate. - Service documentation, including provisioning records, produced an **8 percentage point** lift. - Specific evidence of consuming the purchased content is stronger than general proof that the customer had access to the service. ## Refund Verification - For digital-goods businesses, evidence of a full refund processed through Stripe correlated with a **63 percentage point** higher win rate. - Refunds issued through other channels, such as store credit, produced only a **6 percentage point** lift. - Processor-issued refunds are more verifiable to card issuers because they leave a record on the card network. ## Stripe’s Automated Approach - Stripe’s Smart Disputes can automatically assemble evidence packets using shipping and fulfillment data. - Businesses can provide a carrier and tracking number, after which Stripe retrieves delivery status, timestamps, and location information from supported providers. - Additional communications or documentation can be combined with the generated packet. - If no action is taken before the deadline, Smart Disputes can submit the response automatically. Businesses should prioritize specific, independently verifiable fulfillment evidence and coordinate submission timing with the actual delivery or usage status.:VEVENT